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Re: Trump will likely lose now

Posted by French Frog on 2024-August-5 08:38:08, Monday
In reply to Re: Trump will likely lose now posted by Errant on 2024-August-5 07:40:55, Monday




I don't follow. As far as I can tell, crypto's plunge is part of the wider concern about economic recovery.

You're certainly right here, but I'm afraid politics are not about exposing root causes, but correlations. It was certainly a bad timing for Trump to display so much interest in bitcoin and say he will pay the debt by creating a national bitcoin fund.

Whatever the reason behind the outflows, they discredit Trump's political program. His core electorate will not be moved by it and keep faith, but they aren't the ones who matter in an election, are they?

And economic uncertainty is bad for incumbents.

Well, Kamala is not really the incumbent. It would have been bad for Biden, and is probably bad for Democrats in general, but few people I guess would hold Kamala responsible for Biden's mistakes. Contrary to both Biden and Trump, she represents a potential new President. In fact, it reminds me Macron's first election. Although he was the minister of Economy for years under the hated former President Hollande (who didn't even dare present himself again), and led most of the reforms people hated, most voters saw him as a new guy who would bring change to the country and he didn't get the public blame Hollande received. He eventually got more votes that Fillon, who was the former Prime Minister before Hollande (a position quite similar position to Trump's), though until the last months of the campaign, polls indicated Fillon would win. Kamala is in a very similar position to Macron in 2017, I believe.

Lots of happy boys to you,

FF

French Frog
mi lon. mute mije lili kin li lon.
o sina kute e mi, mi ala wile, pilin pona mi li anpa e pilin ante.




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